Brent (actual)
Brent (forecast)
Prices peaked in April — the $20/bbl pullback window opens now.
Brent hit $124/bbl in April, up 79% in 8 weeks. The EIA's next three months forecast a steady decline to $104. That descent is your procurement window — act before the reference price recedes.
Brent surged 79% in 8 weeks — EIA forecasts steady decline through July
Solid = published actuals · Dashed = EIA STEO outlook · Shaded = forecast zone
Every coming month is cheaper — act before the lever disappears
Official EIA outlook: May, Jun, Jul 2026
$15/bbl spread — your benchmark choice carries real cost exposure
Brent premium over WTI, monthly actuals
Near-term price reference — use this to anchor supplier conversations
EIA STEO official 3-month outlook
| Period | Brent $/bbl | WTI $/bbl | Spread |
|---|
Setup: a historic 8-week spike
Brent rose from $62.54 in Dec 2025 to $124.00 by Apr 2026 — a 98% surge in four months. This is the highest level in the current dataset and far above the prior annual average, with the acceleration concentrated in March and April.
Conflict: the pullback starts immediately
The official outlook puts Brent at $104 by July — a $20 decline in just 3 months. Every month you wait, the reference price you negotiate against falls. The Brent–WTI spread remains material cost exposure if your contracts reference both benchmarks.
Resolution: budget around the average, move while leverage holds
Use the 3-month forecast average as the planning anchor, then decide whether your procurement posture should exploit the expected decline or protect against a slower-than-expected pullback. This is the window to pressure-test contract timing.
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